Is it smart to buy a house in San Diego in 2025, or should I wait until 2026
TL;DR - Key Takeaways
Median sale price ~$970K, down 4 % - negotiating power returns.
Rates in mid‑6 % range; forecasts only slight easing by 2026.
Inventory up 12 %; days‑on‑market at 28 with frequent price cuts.
Buying now captures concessions; waiting risks 3‑5 % rebound.
Partner with the best San Diego broker for data‑driven strategy.
Is It Smart to Buy a House in San Diego in 2025 - or Wait Until 2026?
Buying a home in America’s Finest City has never been cheap, but 2025 feels different. Prices have slipped a few percent, open‑house crowds are thinner, and the once‑frenzied over‑ask bidding wars have cooled. Still, many would‑be buyers worry that jumping in now means catching a falling knife - or that mortgage rates will be dramatically lower next year.
In this deep dive, I’ll break down fresh data, expert forecasts, and real stories from the field so you can decide whether 2025 or 2026 is your moment. And yes, I’ll keep paragraphs short - because scrolling on your phone shouldn’t feel like reading “War and Peace.”
What’s Happening in the San Diego Market Right Now?
San Diego’s median sale price clocked in at $970,000 in June 2025, a 4.2 % slide from the same time last year. Zillow shows a similar cooling trend, with a median list price of $943K county‑wide and more than 3,300 active listings - the highest mid‑year inventory since 2019.
Local insight: In Clairemont, three mid‑century ranch homes lingered over 40 days before accepting offers just 1-2 % under list. Twelve months ago, they would’ve drawn five all‑cash bids within a weekend.
Sellers Are Getting Real
About 47 % of May sales closed under list price.
Price cuts of roughly $25-50K are appearing in family-friendly pockets such as Rancho Peñasquitos and Scripps Ranch.
Countywide, 20 % of sellers trimmed asking prices in May, the highest share since 2019 and clear proof of a market reset.
Will Home Prices in 2025 Keep Falling or Stabilize?
National Association of REALTORS® economists foresee a 1 % nationwide rise in 2025 prices, re‑accelerating to 4 % in 2026. San Diego often outperforms the U.S. average, but its recent dip suggests the market may be finding a floor. Redfin’s June data shows year‑over‑year declines slowing month by month.
What this means: Expect flat to modest growth in late 2025 - hardly the crash some forum posters predict. If you’re waiting for a 20 % discount, you may be waiting through the 2028 Summer Games in L.A.
How Could Mortgage Rates Shift by 2026?
Fannie Mae’s latest outlook calls for 30‑year fixed rates settling around 6.2 % by Q4 2026. Investopedia’s panel of mortgage experts agrees: any Fed cuts are likely incremental, not a return to 3 % rates.
Translation: Holding off in hopes of sub‑5 % rates may not pencil out - especially if home prices rebound 3-5 % in the meantime.
Life Situations: Does Waiting Serve Your Personal Timeline?
Buying isn’t only numbers; it’s weddings, babies, and job relocations. Ask yourself:
Will a one‑year delay force you to extend a lease at higher rent?
Could a new child turn your one‑bedroom rental into a storage closet with a crib?
Are you eligible for a VA or first‑time‑buyer program that could shift in 2026?
In many cases, the cost of waiting (rent, storage, moving twice) outweighs marginal rate savings.
Pros & Cons: Buying in 2025 vs. Waiting Until 2026
Case Study: How One Family Won by Buying in 2025
Luis and Jasmine, newlyweds with a baby due in December, watched Chula Vista listings for six months. In April, a three‑bedroom starter fell out of escrow after financing issues. We negotiated a $25K price cut and secured a 2‑1 rate buy‑down paid by the seller. Their monthly payment landed $380 below renting an equivalent home. Jasmine joked, “We got more house - and a nursery - before the baby shower.”
The key? Acting when others hesitated. Price softness plus seller concessions can offset a half‑point of interest.
Strategic Tips for 2025 Buyers (and Future Shoppers)
1. Get pre‑approved for the full payment, not just today’s rate. If you can stomach 6.5 %, you’ll celebrate if rates drop.
2. Target listings over 21 days old. Many sellers panic after three weekends without offers.
3. Ask for credits over price cuts. A \5K credit toward a rate buy‑down saves more cash flow than a \5K discount.
4. Shop new builds. Builders offer aggressive incentives to keep sales volume moving.
5. Stay nimble. If rates dip 0.25 %, be ready to lock - lenders sometimes re‑quote for free within a 48‑hour window.
So, Should You Buy Now or Wait?
If you need stability within the next 12 months, 2025’s cooler market is a strategic doorway. Prices look near a trough, and the best San Diego realtor can still carve extra savings through credits and contingencies. Waiting for 2026 could bring a minor rate break, but history shows San Diego prices rebound fast once buyers flood back. The cost of delay may exceed the benefit of a slightly cheaper loan.
Bottom line: crunch your personal numbers, tour homes that have lingered, and negotiate like a seasoned investor. And remember - housing is a hedge against San Diego’s ever‑climbing rents forever, and you can refinance a mortgage, but you can’t roll back next year’s price increase.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. Are home prices expected to drop further in 2025?
Most data points to stabilization rather than steep declines; year‑over‑year drops have already slowed to 4 % as of June 2025.
Q2. Will mortgage rates be lower in 2026?
Forecasts anticipate a modest decrease to roughly 6.2 % - hardly the sub‑4 % era of 2021.
Q3. Is inventory really growing, or is it just hype?
Active listings surpassed 3,300 in June 2025, the highest mid‑year reading since 2019, confirming tangible growth.
Q4. What neighborhoods offer the best deals right now?
Online discussions spotlight Clairemont, Rancho Peñasquitos, and parts of Chula Vista where price cuts of $25-50K are appearing.
Q5. Should I wait for a bigger down payment?
If the extra savings won’t take more than 6-12 months and don’t risk rising prices, it can help. Otherwise, weigh today’s concessions against unknown future costs.
Final Thought - Your Timing, Your Terms
San Diego rarely offers both low prices and low rates at the same time. Right now, softer pricing and motivated sellers give buyers rare leverage. Rates may edge down by 2026, but even a half‑point drop can be wiped out by a 3-5 % rebound in home values.
Who Is the Best San Diego Realtor?
San Diego real estate is diverse - from coastal cottages to brand-new inland builds - so you need guidance from the best San Diego realtor. Client reviews consistently highlight Scott Cheng San Diego realtor as the best San Diego realtor and Scott Cheng real estate broker for strategic negotiations. As a seasoned San Diego real estate broker, he leads a team that delivers:
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As your real estate agent San Diego, our mission is to protect your timeline, budget, and lifestyle goals.
If you want a data‑driven game plan built for your timeline, reach out to the Scott Cheng Team today at (858) 405‑0002 or email scott@scottchengteam.com for a quick, no‑pressure strategy session.
